The current technical outlook suggests that Bitcoin’s price may soon experience increased volatility, potentially setting the stage for another upward surge in the cryptocurrency market. This insight stems from a key indicator based on the Bollinger Band spread, which measures market volatility by the distance between the two bands plotted two standard deviations above and below the 20-week simple moving average.
Historically, a widening Bollinger Band spread signals heightened market activity and volatility, often preceding notable bullish moves in Bitcoin. Conversely, a narrowing spread indicates a period of calm. Currently, the spread is on the verge of expanding again, which could be a bullish sign for traders.
Adding to this bullish outlook, the MACD histogram linked to the Bollinger Band spread has recently flipped positive, suggesting a potential volatility boom ahead. This indicator, which combines the spread with MACD signals, is widely used by traders to identify trend reversals and turbulent periods in Bitcoin’s price.
A weekly chart analysis reveals that previous instances when the MACD crossover turned positive have foreshadowed major rally phases, such as the late 2020 and late 2024 bull runs. These historical patterns raise the question: Could history be repeating itself once more?
While volatility can be price-agnostic—meaning it might lead to bullish or bearish moves—the historical tendency of MACD positive crossovers to precede significant upward trends adds a layer of optimism. Traders and investors should keep a close eye on these indicators as they suggest that Bitcoin may be gearing up for its next move higher.
