Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Semler Scientific’s Bitcoin Bet Backfires: Stock Plummets 50% in 2025 Despite $491M in Holdings

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In recent times, many companies have started adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, but the results haven’t always been positive. Take Semler Scientific (SMLR), a medical technology company that shifted focus to a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Unfortunately, its stock has plummeted nearly 50% in 2025, returning close to where it was just over a year ago when it first began accumulating Bitcoin.

Currently, the company’s market value is around $420 million, while its Bitcoin holdings—approximately 4,449 BTC—are valued at about $491 million. This means its net asset value (NAV) ratio has fallen below 1.0, specifically to about 0.859x. This is significant because Semler’s main strategy for buying Bitcoin involves raising capital through share sales. For these share sales to benefit shareholders, the stock price must trade at a premium to the value of the Bitcoin holdings. When the stock trades at or below NAV, issuing new shares can dilute existing shareholders without creating proportional value, effectively stalling further Bitcoin acquisitions under the current approach.

Despite these challenges, Bitcoin advocate Tom Lee from Fundstrat sees potential in Semler Scientific. He considers it an opportunity worth noting in his firm’s “Granny shot” research portfolio—a playful term inspired by an unconventional basketball free throw style. Lee’s perspective highlights how some investors view the situation differently, seeing value where others see setbacks.

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