Despite yet another failed Starship test this week, where the ambitious heavy-lift rocket exploded upon launch, it’s understandable to wonder if SpaceX’s luck has finally run out. However, according to Wendy Whitman Cobb, a space policy expert at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, setbacks like these are not unusual during the development of such complex space technology. What makes the recent Starship tests stand out, she explains, is that they break from the traditional, cautious approach typically taken by space agencies and aerospace companies.
Historically, organizations like NASA and legacy aerospace firms such as United Launch Alliance (ULA) have taken their time developing rockets, conducting extensive testing only once they’re confident in a successful outcome. For example, NASA’s development of the Space Launch System (SLS) has stretched over more than a decade, with a focus on ensuring reliability before moving forward. As Whitman Cobb notes, “They will take as long as they need to make sure the rocket works and that a launch is successful.” This method prioritizes safety and steady progress.
In contrast, SpaceX has adopted a rapid, iterative testing approach—embracing failures as part of the process. This strategy has driven the company’s quick development of reusable rockets like the Falcon 9 and has contributed to its reputation for innovation. But it also means the company frequently faces public failures, some of which have raised concerns about environmental impacts and regulatory challenges. Additionally, Elon Musk’s political connections and influence over federal regulation have sparked debate about the company’s independence and governance.
Within this fast-paced, experimental framework, the development of Starship has appeared particularly chaotic. Unlike Falcon 9, which improved through incremental successes, Starship’s progress has been more uneven. Early efforts focused on proving the rocket’s basic soundness before tackling more complex features like booster reusability. Musk’s team is now attempting to develop an entirely new rocket with advanced engines and full reusability all at once—a monumental engineering challenge.
The Raptor engines powering Starship exemplify this difficulty. Each Starship uses 33 of these engines, which must be capable of reigniting in space—a complex feat that has seen some success but also notable failures during testing. The ambitious pace and scope of these innovations are driven by Musk’s relentless goal of reaching Mars. While existing rockets like Falcon 9 could potentially send supplies to the Red Planet, their limited capacity makes large-scale missions costly and impractical. That’s why SpaceX is pushing so hard to develop a massive spacecraft like Starship that can carry significant payloads in a single launch.
NASA has supported this vision by developing its own heavy-lift options, including the SLS, alongside Starship. However, recent funding cuts threaten to cancel the SLS altogether, leaving SpaceX as a primary player in NASA’s push for Mars exploration. Yet, there’s still a long way to go before Starship can support crewed missions. As Cobb emphasizes, “There’s no way they’re putting people on that right now.” The reality is that crewed missions to Mars with Starship are still years away, and the current focus remains on uncrewed tests.
Elon Musk has expressed optimism about reaching Mars by 2026, with crewed missions as soon as 2028. But Whitman Cobb remains skeptical, pointing out that SpaceX has yet to address critical issues like life support systems, habitat construction, and landing infrastructure. “I think that’s completely delusional,” she says. If SpaceX does manage to launch next year, it will likely be an uncrewed mission. Human landings and sustained presence on Mars, she believes, are still a distant goal.
While she is confident that SpaceX’s engineering capabilities will eventually help overcome these hurdles, Cobb cautions that sending humans to Mars and establishing a large-scale settlement could take decades. “That’s a long-term vision,” she notes, “perhaps not in my lifetime.” For now, the focus remains on refining Starship’s design and testing its limits—step by step—toward a future where interplanetary travel becomes a reality.
